Netanyahu Eyes Election Boost at UN, but Trump Meeting Unlikely
The speech lands just over a month before Israel's Oct. 27 vote, with Netanyahu's governing bloc still trailing the 61-seat threshold needed to form a coalition, a Zman Yisrael poll cited by Israeli news outlet shows.
Lazar Berman, the outlet's diplomatic correspondent, reported that Netanyahu's office pushed for a meeting with Trump, but the American leader was "apparently unwilling to make it happen."
Trump instead met with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani this week and has stopped short of formally backing Netanyahu's reelection bid, the analysis noted. After the piece ran, Trump did share a week-old poll showing Netanyahu's bloc with a narrow lead — still shy of a majority — but again offered no explicit endorsement, Berman wrote.
A face-to-face with Trump would have given Netanyahu fresh ammunition for a familiar campaign argument: that his personal ties to world leaders set him apart from rivals, chief among them Gadi Eisenkot. It also would have opened a direct channel to press Israel's positions on Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. Berman noted such a meeting could have bolstered Netanyahu's past claim that he operates "in another league" than his competitors.
Mounting Pressure at Home
Netanyahu faces headwinds beyond diplomacy. Berman pointed to voter frustration over Netanyahu's failure "to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, his refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry into the disaster, his outgoing coalition's insistent refusal to enlist Haredim, and a growing extremist strain in society."
While Netanyahu addresses assembled world leaders, Berman wrote that "his foremost audience" will actually be Israelis watching from home. The prime minister must convince them he remains Israel's strongest hand on security following what Berman described as three "decidedly inconclusive campaigns" across Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Three Fronts, Three Unfinished Stories
On Gaza, Netanyahu is expected to tout Israeli military control over roughly 60% of the territory and renew his vow to disarm Hamas — though Berman noted the prime minister has offered no roadmap for how that would happen. He may also spotlight the return of all hostages from Gaza while leaving out that more than 40 of those taken alive later died or were killed in captivity, according to the analysis.
In Lebanon, Netanyahu is likely to highlight the toll inflicted on Hezbollah and Israel's ongoing troop presence in the south. But Berman argued the current arrangement — Lebanese forces stepping in as Israeli soldiers pull back — stops well short of actually disarming the militant group.
Iran presents its own complications. Despite weakening Tehran militarily and economically, Berman found no sign its leadership is ready to "make concessions" on either the Strait of Hormuz or its nuclear program. That leaves Netanyahu needing to frame the Iran campaign as a "victory" without concrete gains on the issues Israel cares about most — and his UN remarks may double as an attempt to steer Trump's approach to Tehran, Berman suggested.
Citing Israel's Channel 12, the analysis said Netanyahu plans to present fresh intelligence at the UN on Iran's nuclear program and its efforts to rebuild capacity, likely accompanied by the visual props he's used in past UN addresses.
The report also noted that Trump's envoys met with Iranian officials Tuesday, even as Trump talked up the prospect of a deal materializing after the US midterms. Berman assessed that Trump is unlikely to greenlight renewed strikes on Iran before then — and that Tehran's stance won't budge regardless of the American election calendar, given its insistence on formal recognition over Hormuz and refusal to negotiate its nuclear program.
A Notably Thin Itinerary
Unlike past UN trips that saw Netanyahu huddle with multiple foreign leaders over several days, his current schedule has him landing shortly before Thursday's speech and departing soon after, with no high-level meetings confirmed as of the analysis's publication. Berman tied the diplomatic freeze partly to reputational damage he said Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners have inflicted on Israel's standing abroad.
The visit is expected to draw protests across New York over Israel's war in Gaza and actions in the occupied West Bank. It comes a day after Mamdani branded Netanyahu a "war criminal" and "architect of a horrific genocide against the Palestinians," and after the mayor previously called on US federal authorities to enforce the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against him — while conceding New York City itself has no legal authority to do so.
The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
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