AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Peace Talks: Pakistan says Washington and Tehran have agreed on the “final” wording of a Gulf war-ending memorandum, with mediators finalising next steps; a US official puts the odds of signing at about 80–85% and says nuclear material would be removed and destroyed, while Trump disputes leaked terms and warns Iran to move fast. Strait of Hormuz & Oil Trade: Multiple reports tie any deal to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing sanctions, with officials also pointing to unfreezing billions and lifting pressure on Iran’s oil exports—key for regional shipping and global fuel prices. Lebanon Ceasefire Link: Iran’s position reportedly includes ending fighting in Lebanon, where Israel is battling Hezbollah, making ceasefire language a sticking point. Regional Business Impact: With Hormuz risk and war spillovers already hitting food and fuel costs, any delay or breakdown keeps pressure on trade flows and Lebanon’s wider economic outlook. EU Trade Policy: The EU is set to review whether to ban trade with Israeli settlements across its territory, a move that could ripple into regional commerce.

Lebanon–Saudi Trade Lift: Lebanon’s ambassador in Riyadh says Saudi Arabia resumed Lebanese exports after Beirut met required standards, including tighter drug-fighting and security coordination, calling it a “lifeline” for Lebanon’s economy. US–Iran Deal Watch: Trump says a “great settlement” could be signed within days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran insists no final decision is made, keeping markets and shipping risk in limbo. Oil & Shipping Pressure: Oil prices extended declines after the latest deal talk, while the EU moved to use its freedom-of-navigation sanctions against Iran over Hormuz, targeting IRGC-linked entities. Lebanon War Context: With the conflict still active, reports highlight mounting humanitarian and economic spillovers, while Lebanon’s airport development in Qlayaat is framed as a long-delayed geo-economic corridor step. Regional Security: IDF operations across Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank continue, alongside renewed warnings that ceasefire arrangements remain fragile.

US-Iran Talks Watch: Trump says a “great settlement” is close and has canceled promised strikes, but Iran says the ceasefire is “practically meaningless” and warns of harsher retaliation—while the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint for global trade and energy prices. Lebanon Trade Signal: Saudi Arabia resumes Lebanese exports after Beirut met standards, a potential lifeline for farmers and exporters and a boost for foreign-currency inflows. World Bank Macro Hit: The World Bank cut its global growth forecast, warning the Iran war is worsening inflation and borrowing costs, with developing countries hit hardest. Humanitarian Pressure: UN agencies warn the Middle East conflict is driving food insecurity and displacement, with UNRWA highlighting ongoing operational and financial strain. Regional Business Context: Markets track the ECB rate move and oil-price swings tied to Hormuz risk, keeping investor sentiment cautious.

Saudi Trade Relief for Lebanon: Saudi Arabia lifted a nearly five-year ban on Lebanese imports, reopening its market after Beirut took “positive steps” to rebuild state institutions—an immediate potential boost for Lebanese agriculture and exporters that lost access to a key $240m outlet. Middle East Energy Risk: As US-Iran strikes traded on a second day, Iran warned it could target vessels and keep pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil higher and raising costs for the region’s already strained economies. Ceasefire Under Strain: UN chief Guterres warned the April truce risks sliding into “full war,” while negotiations appear stuck amid escalating rhetoric. Lebanon Security & Economy Pressure: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon continued amid the wider Iran conflict, keeping business uncertainty high. Global Displacement Watch: UNHCR reported forced displacement fell in 2025 for the first time in a decade, but returns often happened under unsafe conditions—another reminder of long-tail economic and humanitarian strain.

Lebanon–Saudi trade push: President Joseph Aoun met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by phone, thanking Riyadh for support and asking for the reopening of Saudi markets to Lebanese agricultural and industrial exports to protect jobs and revenue. Lebanon security and economy under strain: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 12 people as fighting continued despite ceasefire claims, with evacuations and renewed cross-border pressure raising the risk of further disruption to daily commerce. US–Iran escalation with Gulf spillovers: The US launched airstrikes on Iran after Trump blamed Tehran for downing a US helicopter, warning more attacks would follow; Iran retaliated and the UN chief cautioned the region could slide into “full war,” a backdrop that keeps energy and shipping costs volatile. Energy corridor bets: With Strait of Hormuz risks lingering, Saudi and Türkiye signed steps to strengthen a land logistics corridor, signaling more alternatives to maritime routes. Food insecurity warning: The World Food Programme warned the Iran war is starving millions globally through higher food and fuel prices and trade disruption, with Lebanon exposed via regional shocks.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched “self-defence” strikes on Iran after an Apache helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran retaliating by targeting US bases in Jordan and striking Bahrain and Kuwait—raising fresh doubts over a fragile ceasefire. Oil & Markets: The renewed risk pushed crude higher and rattled global sentiment, with shipping and energy supply fears back in focus. Lebanon Under Pressure: Israel’s strikes in southern Lebanon and evacuations around Tyre continued even as diplomacy tried to hold, keeping the Lebanon front tightly linked to the Iran-US standoff. Humanitarian Fallout: The World Food Programme warned the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption could drive millions into acute hunger, as aid faces funding strain. Shipping Risks: Red Sea and Hormuz tensions are again pressuring global trade routes, with analysts flagging higher freight and consumer price spillovers. Local Business Note: Lebanon’s Qlayaat/Quleiat airport push and Fly Beirut plans remain in the background as regional instability threatens broader economic momentum.

US-Iran Escalation: President Trump blamed Iran for downing a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz and said the US “must” respond, after a drone boat rescued the two pilots and confirmed they were safe. Lebanon War Costs: Lebanon marked 100 days of Israel’s campaign with mounting human displacement and major economic losses, as analysts warn the conflict is eroding state capacity. Ceasefire Strain: The helicopter incident comes as Israel expands operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, while Iran and Israel trade threats that could derail any wider truce. Food & Trade Pressure: The World Food Programme warned the Iran war is pushing millions toward severe food insecurity by disrupting trade and driving up fuel and food prices. Lebanon State Capacity: Reporting highlights how Lebanon’s weak sovereignty and financial strain on the Lebanese Armed Forces complicate efforts to strengthen the state and manage the Lebanon front. Local Business/Finance: Whish Money and TotalEnergies expanded digital financial access via stations in Lebanon, aiming to widen everyday payment options.

Lebanon-Economy & Finance: Whish Money teamed up with TotalEnergies Marketing Lebanon to expand digital financial access via 19 service stations, with three sites offering full in-person services for deposits, withdrawals and account management. Markets & Energy: Oil prices slipped after Iran and Israel said they paused direct attacks, but both warned strikes could resume—keeping investors cautious; the dollar also eased as traders weighed Middle East hopes against rate outlooks. US-Iran Diplomacy: Trump said a deal with Iran could be reached in “two or three days,” pointing to economic pressure and a blockade as more effective than bombing, while warning Israel to avoid actions that could isolate it. Ceasefire Tensions: Iran suspended “Operation Nasr” after a “painful response,” yet reiterated it would retaliate if Israel targets Lebanon; UN chief Guterres urged maximum restraint and full respect for ceasefires. Regional Security Spillover: A US Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz; pilots were rescued, underscoring how quickly the conflict is affecting global trade routes.

Iran-Israel Ceasefire: Iran and Israel traded missile volleys again, then both sides said they would halt strikes “for now” after Trump urged an immediate stop to fighting—though Netanyahu warned retaliation if Iran resumes attacks. Lebanon Front: The flare-up was tied to Israeli strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs and continued clashes with Hezbollah, keeping Lebanon at the center of the wider Iran-U.S. diplomacy squeeze. Markets & Energy: Renewed Middle East risk pushed oil higher and rattled global sentiment, with jet-fuel costs and airline profits under pressure as Strait of Hormuz fears return. Humanitarian Pressure: The UN’s WFP warned the Iran war is worsening hunger by driving up food and fuel prices and disrupting trade, adding millions to food-insecure populations. Local Business & Services: Lebanon’s business community also saw quieter updates, including a new urgent care opening in West Lebanon and a chamber leadership change in the U.S. town of Lebanon, signaling ongoing demand for practical services even amid regional uncertainty. AI in Warfare: A report says Israel has expanded AI-controlled drones for surveillance and targeting across multiple fronts, raising the stakes for how quickly conflicts can escalate.

Middle East Risk-Off Hits Markets: Iran and Israel traded retaliatory strikes again, with Israel hitting Iran’s petrochemical facilities and Iran’s IRGC targeting Israeli airbases (Nevatim, Tel Nof), while Yemen’s Houthis declared a Red Sea ban on Israeli shipping—pushing oil higher and dragging global equities, including a sharp Nikkei drop and weaker Gulf trading. Lebanon Ceasefire Under Strain: Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburbs days after a US-backed ceasefire, and Lebanon’s leaders accused Iran of using the country in bargaining—raising fears that Lebanon remains central to any US-Iran deal. Shipping and Energy Shock: The Red Sea ban and renewed Strait of Hormuz worries threaten trade flows and energy costs, with crude jumping and investors staying cautious. Diplomacy in Motion: Qatar’s PM spoke with Iran’s foreign minister on mediation efforts tied to US-Iran talks, while Pakistan’s interior minister met Iranian officials to restart negotiations. Business Angle—Port Security Upgrade: A Beirut Port Authority board member described how new scanners cleared cargo that still posed a wider, spread-out threat—highlighting how Lebanon’s trade security is evolving amid regional instability. Travel Advisory: India urged citizens to avoid Iran and leave immediately as tensions escalated.

Beirut Escalation: Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) again despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, killing at least two and wounding dozens, with Israel saying it hit Hezbollah “command centers” after rocket fire from Lebanon. Iran-US Mediation Pressure: Iran warned of “decisive and painful” retaliation and said U.S. naval blockade and support for Israel make U.S. and Israeli bases “legitimate targets,” while the U.S. said it won’t unfreeze Iranian assets until an agreement is reached. Ceasefire Fragility: The strikes complicate talks that Pakistan is trying to restart, as Hezbollah has rejected the latest ceasefire framework. EU Accountability Push: The EU condemned the killing of another UNIFIL peacekeeper and renewed calls for full accountability and full implementation of UNSCR 1701. Lebanon Business Angle: With regional risk driving uncertainty, Lebanon’s humanitarian and economic strain is set to deepen as markets watch Strait of Hormuz shipping and oil-price swings.

Gulf Reconstruction Finance: The US Treasury is weighing a plan to use frozen Iranian assets to fund repairs and reconstruction for Gulf allies hit by Iran-linked attacks, with officials assessing damage costs and legal options—an idea that could further strain fragile US-Iran talks. Regional Energy Shock: With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, analysts warn trade and energy turmoil could deepen if disruptions last into September, reshaping costs and supply routes. Lebanon Amnesty Debate: Lebanon is considering its largest amnesty in 35 years, aimed at easing jail overcrowding, but protests and opposition highlight the political and justice backlash. Petrol Pricing Pressure: Nigeria’s imported petrol landing cost reportedly fell sharply, undercutting Dangote Refinery’s price and raising the odds of cheaper fuel—though logistics and FX remain hurdles. France Targets West Bank Violence: France is pushing coordinated national sanctions (asset freezes and travel bans) on individuals linked to West Bank violence as EU unanimity stalls. Dubai Staycation Shift: Dubai’s luxury hotels are increasingly relying on residents for staycations as war-driven tourist pullback keeps occupancy uneven.

Aviation & Infrastructure: Lebanon kicked off the rehabilitation of Rene Mouawad Airport in Qlayaat (Akkar), aiming to make the country’s second civilian gateway operational within weeks and fully in service by November 2026, with talks underway with low-cost carriers like Ryanair and Pegasus. Ceasefire Friction: Despite a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire framework, Israeli airstrikes in the south killed nine people including Lebanese army officers, with Lebanon’s president calling it a sovereignty violation. Regional Energy Risk: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait; the U.S. said it intercepted and struck radar/surveillance sites, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a key flashpoint for global trade. Diplomacy & Politics: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun again criticized Iran and Hezbollah over ceasefire positions, saying Lebanon is “fed up” with war and wants negotiations that end the conflict. Business/Markets Angle: Oil prices eased on hopes around the Lebanon ceasefire, while broader markets stayed sensitive to US-Iran escalation fears.

AI & Defense: Trump issued a memo urging the U.S. military and national security agencies to speed up AI use, while stressing civil liberties and human control over autonomous weapons. Lebanon Politics & Security: Lebanon’s ceasefire debate is deepening as Israel’s strikes and forced displacement continue, while lawmakers push ahead with a sweeping amnesty that would commute many death and life sentences. Humanitarian Pressure: The UN food agency warns the Iran-linked regional war is pushing millions toward acute hunger, with spillovers hitting food and fuel prices and trade. Regional Energy Risk: Bahrain and Kuwait condemned renewed Iranian attacks after interceptions, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint for global energy flows. Finance & Markets: Wall Street sank sharply as chip and AI-linked stocks tumbled after strong U.S. jobs data revived rate-hike fears; currency stress and dollarisation trends are also highlighted as local currencies lose trust. Lebanon Business Angle: EBRD says it will keep scaling support for conflict-affected economies including Lebanon, aiming to back liquidity for firms and stabilize financial sectors.

Humanitarian Pressure on Lebanon: Lebanon launched an urgent appeal for an extra $331.5m to support 1.4m people displaced or affected by the Israel-Hezbollah war, lifting the total need to $639.9m through end-August. Ceasefire Friction: Despite US-brokered ceasefire efforts, Hezbollah rejected the latest terms and Israel kept striking southern areas, while Iran demanded Israel withdraw as a condition for any wider US-Iran understanding. Lebanon-Iran Political Clash: President Joseph Aoun and PM Nawaf Salam rebuked Iran for treating Lebanon as a “bargaining chip,” saying decisions must be Lebanese-led. Oil and Markets: Oil slipped as traders weighed demand fears and Middle East uncertainty; WTI held above $90 while global equities stayed mixed amid AI-stock pullbacks and rate-hike worries. US Travel Warning: The US Embassy in Jerusalem issued a security alert, keeping much of the region at Level 3-4 travel advisories. Business/Finance Watch: A Lebanon-linked HSBC Swiss unit is under probe in a central-bank scandal, with France charging HSBC in the case.**

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Under Strain: A US-brokered conditional ceasefire was announced, but Hezbollah rejected the terms and demanded a full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel said it will keep operations in southern Lebanon—raising fresh uncertainty for regional diplomacy and markets. Iran Talks and Oil Jitters: US-Iran negotiations stayed fragile as Iran linked progress to Lebanon, while strikes around the region kept pressure on crude and safe-haven demand. Markets Watch Middle East Risk: European and Asian stocks slipped as investors took profits on AI after Broadcom’s weak outlook and turned defensive amid renewed Mideast tension; the yen also tested key levels. Lebanon Finance Probe: France charged HSBC’s Swiss unit in the Riad Salameh case, alleging money laundering and criminal conspiracy, with a €80m deposit ordered. Humanitarian Fallout: Palestinian refugees in Lebanon face renewed displacement and worsening living conditions as fighting intensifies. Aviation Demand Signal: EU officials said there’s no jet fuel shortage in Europe yet, though disruption risk remains if Hormuz stays closed. Local Business/Justice: A Lebanon County business owner pleaded guilty in a laundering case tied to illicit drug sales. Culture Note: Italian-Lebanese artists Ilaria and Vanessa Makhoul discussed their low-budget music video project inspired by Tarkovsky. Patriarch Hoayek Beatification: Lebanon’s founding father Patriarch Elias Hoayek is set for beatification on 25 July, with organizers framing it as a message of unity amid crisis.