Heat stress could cost Sri Lanka and the Maldives the equivalent of 147,000 full-time jobs by 2040, ILO studies find

COLOMBO/MALÉ (ILO News) – Rising temperatures and workplace heat stress are already affecting workers, productivity and economies in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, according to new studies by the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The findings show that the economic and employment consequences could intensify substantially in the coming decades.

By 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway, reduced working time caused by rising heat stress is projected to amount to the equivalent of around 147,000 full-time jobs across the two countries: approximately 145,000 in Sri Lanka and 2,400 in the Maldives.

Under the same pathway, combined annual GDP losses are projected at around USD26.6 billion by 2040, including approximately USD26 billion in Sri Lanka and USD576 million in the Maldives, compared with the historical reference period.

The studies also show that heat stress is not only a future risk. In 2023, rising workplace heat stress due to climate change resulted in additional losses of working time and GDP in both countries compared with the 1985–2014 historical reference period.

In Sri Lanka, the sectors likely to be hardest hit are agriculture, followed by services, manufacturing and construction. In the Maldives, the impact will be felt hardest in services and construction.

“These findings make clear that heat stress is already affecting workers, enterprises and economies in Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Protecting workers from heat stress needs to be part of how we approach occupational safety and health, climate adaptation and economic resilience. Through social dialogue, governments, employers and workers can develop practical solutions that protect health and livelihoods while sustaining productive enterprises,” said Joni Simpson, ILO Country Director for Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

The studies identify practical measures that can reduce the impact of increased heat stress. These include adjusting working hours to avoid the hottest periods, introducing appropriate work-rest cycles, providing shade, hydration and cooling facilities, strengthening workplace heat monitoring and occupational safety and health standards, and improving awareness of heat-related risks.

The findings also point to the importance of social protection, particularly for workers who may be unable to reduce their working hours without losing essential income. The Sri Lanka and Maldives studies form part of a six-country research initiative that also covers Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon and Senegal. The studies were commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), with funding provided through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund.

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